Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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M3PIE
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Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Solar Cycle update
Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected.

Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025.

Get the full story @ Spaceweather.com.
Kenwood TS-570DG, RM/KL500, Solarcon A99.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE:

Sunspot AR2816 erupted during the late hours of April 19th (2342 UT), producing a strong M1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash: This is one of the strongest flares of young Solar Cycle 25. A pulse of X-rays and ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: blackout map. Mariners and ham radio operators in the area might have noticed unusual propagation conditions at frequencies below 10 MHz.

There is a chance that the explosion also hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. If so, it would probably arrive on April 22-23. The jury's still out, though. We need to wait for more data from SOHO coronagraphs to confirm the CME. Stay tuned
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Solar Flare and Radio Blackout
In a sign of increasing solar activity, the sun just produced an M-class solar flare--one of the strongest flares of new Solar Cycle 25.

A pulse of X-rays and UV radiation caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean, and the explosion also hurled a CME into space.

Get the full story @ Spaceweather.com.
Kenwood TS-570DG, RM/KL500, Solarcon A99.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Geomagnetic storm warning
A CME is heading for Earth and it could spark a geomagnetic storm when it arrives on April 25th.

NOAA forecasters say moderately strong G2-class storms are possible, which means auroras could dip into northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.

Full story and updates @ Spaceweather.com.
Kenwood TS-570DG, RM/KL500, Solarcon A99.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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A cluster of sunspots are facing Earth on Monday. Both AR 2820 and 2821 continued to show signs of development during the past 12 hours and are considered a threat for minor C-Class solar flares.

Geomagnetic activity again decreased to lower levels following another brief period of minor (G1) storming early Monday. The solar wind stream remains near 500 km/s. A gradual decrease in speed is expected over the next few days before another coronal hole begins to face Earth later this week.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Frank Donovan, W3LPL is one of the top contesters in the USA and is a key forecaster of upcoming conditions on the HF amateur radio bands.

In a recent forecast (April 2021), he made a forecast about how good upcoming Solar Cycle 25 would be based on the Solar Flux numbers at the end of December 2021. I have put together a graphic which shows this above. The starting point for April 2021 is a solar flux index of 77 which is roughly the average for the month.

W3LPL wrote... “If the SFI persists below 90 through December 2021, then propagation should improve gradually until a solar maximum weaker than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.

If the SFI persists above 110 through December 2021, then propagation should improve rapidly until a solar maximum similar to Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.

“If the SFI persists above 125 through December 2021, then propagation is likely to improve more rapidly until a solar maximum stronger than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.”

(SFI = Solar Flux Index)

As with everything on the sun, there is always an amount of uncertainty in solar forecasts but it will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the year and see where we're at.
W3LPL-Solar-Cycle-24-prediction-Apr-2021.jpg
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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The Sun just hit Earth with a radio burst
New sunspot AR2822 appeared today and promptly exploded, producing one of the strongest flares of young Solar Cycle 25.

The M3.9-class explosion hurled a bright CME into space and hit Earth with a shortwave radio burst.

Listen to the static and find out what comes next @ Spaceweather.com.
Kenwood TS-570DG, RM/KL500, Solarcon A99.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Solar flare frenzy and CME
On Saturday, the sun produced a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years.

Earth-orbiting satellites detected a dozen explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2824.
One of them emitted a radio burst so strong, it drowned out static from lightning storms on Earth and was recorded at midnight by listening stations in the Arctic.

NOAA forecast models suggest that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on May 26th.

Full story @ Spaceweather.com.
Kenwood TS-570DG, RM/KL500, Solarcon A99.
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Re: Solar Cycle 25 is Coming to Life

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Noctilucent clouds are back (earlier than expected)
High above the Arctic Circle, something unusual is happening.

Summertime noctilucent clouds (NLCs) have formed ahead of schedule, surprising sky watchers in Europe with sightings at latitudes as low as 50 degrees.

What's going on up there? Find out @ Spaceweather.com.
Kenwood TS-570DG, RM/KL500, Solarcon A99.
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